Archive - Recession / Turbulence Model Updates

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Recession Model Update (August 2022)

"Whose recession is it anyway?"

Aug 14, 2022 •

June 2022

Recession Model Update (June 2022)

Unsurprisingly, the model values have been marching upwards as the general public becomes more aware of the possibility for a recession soon.

Jun 11, 2022 •

March 2022

Recession Model Update (March 2022)

Friends, Just 2 quick updates for you: one on the model, and one on a useful but under-mentioned inflation forecasting tool.

Mar 12, 2022 •

May 2021

Recession Model Update (May 2021)

Friends, Surprisingly, model values spiked up this month. But I believe this is caused by an arithmetic glitch rather than a deeper underlying signal…

May 10, 2021 •

April 2021

Recession Model Update (April 2021)

Friends, Current Values (as of April 8, 2021) Box Office Recovery People are finally heading back to movie theaters. Last week’s U.S. movie theater…

Apr 11, 2021 •

March 2021

Recession Model Update (March 2021)

Friends, With model values rapidly declining, I fully expect NBER to announce the end of the current recession soon. Current Values (as of March 8…

Mar 10, 2021 •

February 2021

Recession Model Update (February 2021)

Friends, Model values continue dropping across all time frames, suggesting that the recovery is charging ahead. Current Values (as of February 8, 2021…

Feb 11, 2021 •

January 2021

Recession Model Update (January 2021)

Friends, Model values continue to fall across all time frames. Current Values (as of January 8, 2021) As discussed in last month’s update, as long as…

Jan 11, 2021 •

December 2020

Recession Model Update (December 2020)

Friends, As anticipated in last month’s update, model values have continued to fall. Current Values (as of December 7, 2020) With the recovery seemingly…

Dec 14, 2020 •

November 2020

Recession Model Update (November 2020)

Friends, Model probabilities have finally ticked slightly downwards. As the effect of today’s vaccine news propagates through the market, it would make…

Nov 9, 2020 •

October 2020

Recession Model Update (October 2020)

Friends, Model probabilities are stubbornly refusing to fall. If we trust these probabilities, then it appears the recovery has still not accelerated in…

Oct 12, 2020 •

September 2020

Recession Model Update (September 2020)

Friends, Current Values (as of September 7, 2020) The model probabilities have stayed elevated despite many believing that the bottom is behind us: U.S…

Sep 14, 2020 •

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