Friends, Model probabilities are stubbornly refusing to fall. If we trust these probabilities, then it appears the recovery has still not accelerated in earnest. Current Values (as of October 7, 2020) Turbulence Continues to Fall Since peaking in April, the Turbulence Indicator has steadily decreased. This is a good sign, since Turbulence tends to be persistent (as discussed by Mark Kritzman and Yuanzhen Li in their paper titled
Recession Model Update (October 2020)
Recession Model Update (October 2020)
Recession Model Update (October 2020)
Friends, Model probabilities are stubbornly refusing to fall. If we trust these probabilities, then it appears the recovery has still not accelerated in earnest. Current Values (as of October 7, 2020) Turbulence Continues to Fall Since peaking in April, the Turbulence Indicator has steadily decreased. This is a good sign, since Turbulence tends to be persistent (as discussed by Mark Kritzman and Yuanzhen Li in their paper titled