Friends, Surprisingly, model values spiked up this month. But I believe this is caused by an arithmetic glitch rather than a deeper underlying signal. Explanation is below. Current Values (as of May 8, 2021) The Short Story I think this spike will be short-lived, since it is likely caused by the model’s input variables having 12-month lookback windows. As last spring’s numbers leave the 12-month lookback windows, the model output values should resume their decline.
Really interesting, keep up the great work
Thanks for sharing these updates, Terrence. Very informative and I look forward to seeing them in my inbox. Keep up the good work!