Recession Model Update (September 2020)
Friends,
Current Values (as of September 7, 2020)

The model probabilities have stayed elevated despite many believing that the bottom is behind us:
U.S. economy is near bottom, poised for rebound, Fed’s Williams says (MarketWatch)
The U.S. economic slide is likely bottoming out, but a recovery could take years (Washington Post)
If I had more spare time right now, I would try to find out which variables are driving the model predictions (model interpretation). In other words:
Why are model probabilities still elevated?
Are the current input variables still relevant, given the Fed’s pivot to average inflation targeting?
Until Next Time
Terrence | terrencez.com
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