Recession / Turbulence Model Updates
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Recession / Turbulence Model Updates
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Recession / Turbulence Model Updates
Periodic updates on the Recession Model and Turbulence Indicator
By Terrence Zhang · Launched 2 years ago
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Recession Model Update (June 2022)
Unsurprisingly, the model values have been marching upwards as the general public becomes more aware of the possibility for a recession soon.
Terrence Zhang
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Recession Model Update (June 2022)
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Recession Model Update (March 2022)
Friends, Just 2 quick updates for you: one on the model, and one on a useful but under-mentioned inflation forecasting tool.
Terrence Zhang
Mar 12
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Recession Model Update (March 2022)
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Recession Model Update (May 2021)
Friends, Surprisingly, model values spiked up this month. But I believe this is caused by an arithmetic glitch rather than a deeper underlying signal…
Terrence Zhang
May 10, 2021
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Recession Model Update (May 2021)
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Recession Model Update (April 2021)
Friends, Current Values (as of April 8, 2021) Box Office Recovery People are finally heading back to movie theaters. Last week’s U.S. movie theater…
Terrence Zhang
Apr 11, 2021
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Recession Model Update (April 2021)
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Recession Model Update (March 2021)
Friends, With model values rapidly declining, I fully expect NBER to announce the end of the current recession soon. Current Values (as of March 8…
Terrence Zhang
Mar 10, 2021
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Recession Model Update (March 2021)
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Recession Model Update (February 2021)
Friends, Model values continue dropping across all time frames, suggesting that the recovery is charging ahead. Current Values (as of February 8, 2021…
Terrence Zhang
Feb 11, 2021
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Recession Model Update (February 2021)
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Recession Model Update (January 2021)
Friends, Model values continue to fall across all time frames. Current Values (as of January 8, 2021) As discussed in last month’s update, as long as…
Terrence Zhang
Jan 11, 2021
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Recession Model Update (January 2021)
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Recession Model Update (December 2020)
Friends, As anticipated in last month’s update, model values have continued to fall. Current Values (as of December 7, 2020) With the recovery seemingly…
Terrence Zhang
Dec 14, 2020
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Recession Model Update (December 2020)
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Recession / Turbulence Model Updates
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