Recession / Turbulence Model Updates

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Unsurprisingly, the model values have been marching upwards as the general public becomes more aware of the possibility for a recession soon.
Terrence Zhang
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Friends, Just 2 quick updates for you: one on the model, and one on a useful but under-mentioned inflation forecasting tool.
Terrence Zhang
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Friends, Surprisingly, model values spiked up this month. But I believe this is caused by an arithmetic glitch rather than a deeper underlying signal…
Terrence Zhang
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Friends, Current Values (as of April 8, 2021) Box Office Recovery People are finally heading back to movie theaters. Last week’s U.S. movie theater…
Terrence Zhang
Friends, With model values rapidly declining, I fully expect NBER to announce the end of the current recession soon. Current Values (as of March 8…
Terrence Zhang
2
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Friends, Model values continue dropping across all time frames, suggesting that the recovery is charging ahead. Current Values (as of February 8, 2021…
Terrence Zhang
1
Friends, Model values continue to fall across all time frames. Current Values (as of January 8, 2021) As discussed in last month’s update, as long as…
Terrence Zhang
Friends, As anticipated in last month’s update, model values have continued to fall. Current Values (as of December 7, 2020) With the recovery seemingly…
Terrence Zhang
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Recession / Turbulence Model Updates

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