Recession Model Update (March 2021)

Friends,

With model values rapidly declining, I fully expect NBER to announce the end of the current recession soon.

Current Values (as of March 8, 2021)

Another Sign of Optimism

In addition to good news about vaccines and jobs, it seems reassuring that individuals are travelling more on a day-to-day basis as well. In the United States, 2021 mobility (blue line) is actually exceeding 2019 levels, on a population-adjusted basis.

United States

Some states, like Georgia (up 15%), are leading the charge.

Georgia

While other states, like California (down 20%), are still lagging behind, but trending in the right direction.

California

See how your state is doing:

https://public.tableau.com/views/U_S_EconomicRecoveryTracker/Mobility?:language=en&:display_count=y&:origin=viz_share_link

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Until Next Time

Terrence | terrencez.com

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