Recession / Turbulence Model Updates

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Recession Model Update (March 2021)

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Recession Model Update (March 2021)

Terrence Zhang
Mar 10, 2021
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Friends,

With model values rapidly declining, I fully expect NBER to announce the end of the current recession soon.

Current Values (as of March 8, 2021)

Another Sign of Optimism

In addition to good news about vaccines and jobs, it seems reassuring that individuals are travelling more on a day-to-day basis as well. In the United States, 2021 mobility (blue line) is actually exceeding 2019 levels, on a population-adjusted basis.

United States

Some states, like Georgia (up 15%), are leading the charge.

Georgia

While other states, like California (down 20%), are still lagging behind, but trending in the right direction.

California

See how your state is doing:

https://public.tableau.com/views/U_S_EconomicRecoveryTracker/Mobility?:language=en&:display_count=y&:origin=viz_share_link


Until Next Time

Terrence | terrencez.com

View previous updates in the archive.

I’m always eager to hear your comments or questions. Just hit reply to this email, and I will respond. You can also fill out the contact form here. Either way, I will respond from my personal email.

All opinions are my own and not the views of my employer.

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1 Comment
Timo Krall
Apr 6, 2021Liked by Terrence Zhang

Thank you for providing this tool, amazing work!

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