Friends, Recession probabilities edged downwards last month, likely driven by: Positive domestic labor releases (nonfarm payrolls, jobless claims) Hopes for a "Phase One deal" in the US-China Trade War Some bright spots in Europe (rising German factory orders) - however tomorrow's (Nov. 14) German GDP data could show the country in recession (defined as 2 consecutive quarters of GDP decline) for the first time since 2013
Recession Model Update (November 2019)
Recession Model Update (November 2019)
Recession Model Update (November 2019)
Friends, Recession probabilities edged downwards last month, likely driven by: Positive domestic labor releases (nonfarm payrolls, jobless claims) Hopes for a "Phase One deal" in the US-China Trade War Some bright spots in Europe (rising German factory orders) - however tomorrow's (Nov. 14) German GDP data could show the country in recession (defined as 2 consecutive quarters of GDP decline) for the first time since 2013