Friends, Model recession probabilities continue diving downwards across all time frames. Current Predictions (as of January 7, 2020) Within 6 months: 15.5% Within 12 months: 31.6% Within 24 months: 52.4% It is worth noting that these predictions do not account for the December 2019 Nonfarm Payrolls report to be released on January 10. This is because the model reads data from the FRED API as of the 7th day of each month, which would normally capture the most recent Nonfarm Payrolls report typically released on the first Friday of every month.
Recession Model Update (January 2020)
Recession Model Update (January 2020)
Recession Model Update (January 2020)
Friends, Model recession probabilities continue diving downwards across all time frames. Current Predictions (as of January 7, 2020) Within 6 months: 15.5% Within 12 months: 31.6% Within 24 months: 52.4% It is worth noting that these predictions do not account for the December 2019 Nonfarm Payrolls report to be released on January 10. This is because the model reads data from the FRED API as of the 7th day of each month, which would normally capture the most recent Nonfarm Payrolls report typically released on the first Friday of every month.