Recession Model Update (January 2020)
Friends,
Model recession probabilities continue diving downwards across all time frames.
Current Predictions (as of January 7, 2020)
Within 6 months: 15.5%
Within 12 months: 31.6%
Within 24 months: 52.4%
It is worth noting that these predictions do not account for the December 2019 Nonfarm Payrolls report to be released on January 10. This is because the model reads data from the FRED API as of the 7th day of each month, which would normally capture the most recent Nonfarm Payrolls report typically released on the first Friday of every month.
The December 2019 Nonfarm Payrolls report was not released on January 3 (first Friday of this month), presumably due to the New Years holiday. Next month's model predictions will include the most recent payrolls figures.
Overall, the market tone seems upbeat despite political drama as U.S. stocks roar to new highs. Notably, the Atlanta Fed estimate for 2019 Q4 GDP is as optimistic as ever:
Until Next Time
Terrence | terrencez.com
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