Friends, Current Predictions Within 6 months: 33.7% Within 12 months: 51.2% Within 24 months: 69.0% Meanwhile, financial market turbulence remains at historically low levels. Despite the high predicted recession probabilities, I'm not too worried until turbulence spikes up in a meaningful way.
Recession Model Update (October 2019)
Recession Model Update (October 2019)
Recession Model Update (October 2019)
Friends, Current Predictions Within 6 months: 33.7% Within 12 months: 51.2% Within 24 months: 69.0% Meanwhile, financial market turbulence remains at historically low levels. Despite the high predicted recession probabilities, I'm not too worried until turbulence spikes up in a meaningful way.