Friends, Model recession probabilities held steady last month. The overall mood of the markets is pretty upbeat, and a recession *feels* nowhere in sight to market observers. In January, US payrolls expanded by 225,000, beating the consensus forecast.
Recession Model Update (February 2020)
Recession Model Update (February 2020)
Recession Model Update (February 2020)
Friends, Model recession probabilities held steady last month. The overall mood of the markets is pretty upbeat, and a recession *feels* nowhere in sight to market observers. In January, US payrolls expanded by 225,000, beating the consensus forecast.