Friends - recognizing that most of you probably have followed the ongoing pandemic and its economic impact, I will try to keep this update brief. Unsurprisingly, model recession probabilities have jumped upwards. Notably, the 6-month probability (45.9%) has risen to levels that have historically always resulted in a recession shortly thereafter (data going back to 1976).
Recession Model Update (April 2020)
Recession Model Update (April 2020)
Recession Model Update (April 2020)
Friends - recognizing that most of you probably have followed the ongoing pandemic and its economic impact, I will try to keep this update brief. Unsurprisingly, model recession probabilities have jumped upwards. Notably, the 6-month probability (45.9%) has risen to levels that have historically always resulted in a recession shortly thereafter (data going back to 1976).