Unsurprisingly, the model values have been marching upwards as the general public becomes more aware of the possibility for a recession soon.
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Friends, Just 2 quick updates for you: one on the model, and one on a useful but under-mentioned inflation forecasting tool.
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Friends, Surprisingly, model values spiked up this month. But I believe this is caused by an arithmetic glitch rather than a deeper underlying signal…
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Friends, Current Values (as of April 8, 2021) Box Office Recovery People are finally heading back to movie theaters. Last week’s U.S. movie theater…
Friends, With model values rapidly declining, I fully expect NBER to announce the end of the current recession soon. Current Values (as of March 8…
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Friends, Model values continue dropping across all time frames, suggesting that the recovery is charging ahead. Current Values (as of February 8, 2021…
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Friends, Model values continue to fall across all time frames. Current Values (as of January 8, 2021) As discussed in last month’s update, as long as…
Friends, As anticipated in last month’s update, model values have continued to fall. Current Values (as of December 7, 2020) With the recovery seemingly…
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Recession / Turbulence Model Updates